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First-quarter financial data: credit drop expected steady growth

People's Bank of China released on April 14, according to March social scale 1.18 trillion, the new local-currency loans 995.5 billion. March new Yuan loans from financial institutions 11 quarters of social financing 4.61 trillion, new Yuan loans of which 3.61 trillion.
financial institutions new Yuan loans of 3.68 trillion in the first quarter, added 4.15 trillion yuan deposits. 1.18 trillion, 2.56 trillion yuan in new Yuan deposits. March growth of M0, M1, M2, and 6.2% and 11.6%, respectively.
reviews:
Community financing March limited growth, off-balance sheet financing contract causes growth compared with a significant decline in the first quarter. From the one-month March social financing scale 1.18 trillion, in February compared with 173.2 billion yuan. Social financing is often sharply from February of the year March increase but in 2015, there is reduced, mainly in February, excessive credit delivery, limited credit lines last month in the first quarter, but higher loan growth relative to the same period last year was. Perspective in the second quarter, the entire community size was 4.61 trillion in the first quarter, compared with last year's first quarter by 894.9 billion less, lies in the significant reduction in off-balance sheet financing: decrease of 1.59 trillion a year earlier. This is because the second half of 2014 to management to strengthen the supervision of off-balance sheet financing, compression off-balance sheet financing of commercial bank off-balance sheet financing is at a relatively low proportion of only 13.4% per cent March 2015. Loans in the first quarter, bond and equity financing is the main off-balance sheet financing, accounting for off-balance sheet financing in the first quarter of 82%.
YOY augmentation credit growth in the first quarter, March credit increase or new money entering the stock market-related. New Yuan loans of 3.68 trillion in the first quarter, an increase of 670 billion dollars a year earlier, of which non-financial corporations and other sectors an increase of 630 billion, you can see the 2015 credit support for steady growth in the first quarter. One-month March new Yuan loans of 1.18 trillion in February, representing a 160 billion more. In the loan, we found the residents loans increased only 39.3 billion, corporate loans less by 199.2 billion, that means non-banking financial institutions increased by about 300 billion scale, or associated with rapid gains in stock market bullish and financing balance, an increase of 58.6 billion of short-term loans of households also comply with that judgment. Enterprises as well as medium-and long-term loans of households reduced by 139.3 billion with 19.4 billion, shows increased credit did not go directly to the real economy.
induced by steady growth in fiscal deposits, deposits by the late surge. March added 2.56 trillion yuan deposits, financial savings and reduce 330.5 billion corresponds to the proactive fiscal policy, corporate deposits and deposits of residents increased by 1.0154 trillion and 597 billion. We speculated that the remaining 1.28 trillion new deposits may be from governmental bodies and non-bank financial institutions, in the law of quarter deposits increased substantially.
per cent reducing M2 growth falling, falling expectations have increased. March the broad money supply M2 to 127.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6%, down 0.9% from the previous month, slightly below our expectations. We believe M2 growth fell mainly due to a sharp decrease in foreign exchange: the foreign exchange 252.1 billion reduction in the first quarter, and last year's first quarter was increased by 1.29 trillion. Meanwhile, the credit in the first quarter compared with an increase of 670 billion, in theory, is to improve the growth rate of M2, which confirms the money gap is the M2 growth rate decline in the outflow of capital caused the logic. Judging from the M2 growth in the first quarter, and growth targets for the year and there is not much difference, but if the trend of capital flight intensifies and foreign exchange will continue to significantly reduce, the Central Bank will need to take down or MLF, loan rediscount currency policy to hedge market drop is also expected to strengthen.
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